ALARM Scenarios

Each ALARM scenario consists of a storyline or narrative, of which several elements are quantitatively illustrated by different, partly integrated models. In a nutshell, we developed three draft storylines, one assuming a shift towards a coherent liberal, growth focussed policy (GRAS, GRowth Applied Strategy), the second a sustainability policy scenario (SEDG, Sustainable European Development Goal), and the third one (the reference case) a scenario describing the continuation of current policy trajectories. This BAMBU (Business As Might Be Usual) baseline scenario is what the IPCC calls a policy driven one, i.e. a scenario extrapolating the expected trends in EU decision making and assessing their sustainability and biodiversity impacts. However, BAMBU - as the name indicates - is no business as usual scenario, based on trend extrapolation, since recent or upcoming changes in EU policies would have been ignored that way. For instance, the BAMBU scenario accounts for the CAP reform, REACH (in the qualitative discussions), the biomass program and the like. It includes climate mitigation and adaptation measures and explicit but not radical biodiversity protection policies.

The two other scenarios describe different policy orientations discussed by relevant stakeholders in Europe. GRAS is a liberal, free-trade, globalisation and deregulation scenario. Regarding climate change, its focus is on adaptation rather than mitigation, with some but limited measures taken to limit climate change, but with provisions for biodiversity protection (and other environmental problems) are limited and will only be taken when the problem emerges. The scenario policies show no interest in social and institutional sustainability; economic sustainability is interpreted mainly as economic growth.

As opposed to that, the SEDG sustainable development scenario is based upon a backcasting approach (an inverse projection); it is dedicated to integrated environmental, social, institutional and economic sustainability. Inverse projection implies that the scenario narrative is normative, designed to meet specific goals and deriving the necessary policy measures to achieve them. This represents a precautionary approach, taking measures under uncertainty to avoid not yet fully known future damages.

However, assuming a gradual development, i.e. no surprises, is probably the most implausible vision of the future. Thus three potential shocks were included amongst the scenarios as 'wild cards', assuming extreme disturbances in one of the three dimensions used for sustainability concepts, the environmental (GRAS-CUT), the economic (BAMBU-SEL) and the social one (BAMBU-CANE), as illustrated in figure below.

For illustrating the scenarios in a coherent manner with different simulation models, it is necessary to compare and - where necessary and possible - to reconcile the model assumptions, a task not made easier by the different time horizons, levels of uncertainty and spatial resolutions