ALARM Area 8 : Scenarios

There is a broad consensus amongst expert scholars that the rapid loss of biodiversity continues, although the number of species lost (let alone the loss of ecosystem and genetic diversity) cannot be quantified. Biodiversity is influenced by a combination of natural processes (e.g. evolution, succession) and anthropogenic pressures (e.g. land use, nitrogen deposition, climate change, alien species invasions). Changes in biodiversity have impacts on ecosystem stability (although it is not fully understood how) and on the socio-economic system.

Biodiversity is an element of the linked human-environment system but research so far has mainly concentrated on isolated elements of this system and not on the interlinked system as a whole. Projections of future biodiversity development have for some time used climate envelopes to assess biodiversity risks. Recent scenarios (GEO 4, OECD Outlook 2030, Global Biodiversity Outlook 2) go a step further by combining economic and environmental models. As emphasised by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, they assess the impact of biodiversity change on human well being, and the driving forces shaping this interaction.

In the Area 'Scenario', it is possible to:

Discover scenarios
To present simulation results
To compare scenarios
To evaluate scenarios

More information about this grain :

Language : English

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Sources :

Authors : Jean-Marc Douguet

Creator : Charlotte da Cunha

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