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Analysis by scenario of the first deliberation method
- Yasuní Initiative
2D Deliberation matrix in the Yasuní Initiative scenario.
This is the best scenario according to the majority of stakeholders' judgments.
The performance issues, plans for renewable energy, traditional relations between people and nature and nature administration and economics, are judged positive in this scenario.
In contrast the oil company and the dependent oil activity enterprises totally disagree with this scenario. Other inhabitants of the Yasuní National Park also express some disagreement principally related to job opportunities (with the oil company) and services and goods access, as showed in life improvement issue.
Uncertainties of health of the environment issues are related to the safeguarding of the forest and species in danger even in this scenario.
2D Deliberation matrix in the Yasuní without economic compensation scenario.
This scenario is the more uncertain and unknown for stakeholders.
Life improvement, social participation and plans for renewable energies performance issues, seem to be unknown to stakeholders in this scenario. This could be related to the huge decrease in national revenues, distrust of the State to assume responsibility for local people’s needs and even worse without economic resources, no possibility of investing in renewable energies.
In contrast, the scenario is judged more or less positive for health of the environment and traditional relations between people and nature issues, as natural conditions of animal and vegetal biodiversity and indigenous people shouldn’t be affected here.
According to the stakeholders, the oil company and the dependent enterprises of oil activities, as in A), totally disagree with this scenario.
- ITT Oil project
Figure 53. 2D Deliberation matrix in the Yasuní ITT oil project scenario.
This scenario reflects little acceptability or it seems to be less wanted by proposed stakeholders.
Health of the environment, social participation, plans for renewable energies and traditional relations between people and nature are the issues that won’t have good conditions in this scenario.
In contrast, nature administration and economics shows positive judgments principally related to the oil revenues for the State and what this activity means economically for other sectors and people. A similar situation occurs with the life improvement issue.
In this first analysis, the stakeholders: civil society organisations, indigenous from Yasuní, researches, and other Ecuadorians, express a negative judgment on this scenario.